When the business cycle is fairly stable, consumer demand surveys and consumer confidence and sentiment indices will often correlate closely and indicate the same direction of the economy, but in times with a high degree of economic or political uncertainty or during a prolonged crisis, the two types of consumer surveys might differ significantly. Each question's positive responses are divided by the sum of its positive and negative responses.
The consumer confidence index started in 1967 and is benchmarked to 1985 = 100. Globally, nearly two-thirds of consumers are upbeat about their job prospects and their personal finances, notably in North America and Asia.
Given the potential for sampling biases of individual survey reports, researchers and investors try sometimes to average the values of different index reports into a single aggregated measure of consumer confidence. Consumer-demand surveys versus consumer-confidence and -sentiment surveysOther measures of consumer confidence in the United StatesConsumer-demand surveys versus consumer-confidence and -sentiment surveysOther measures of consumer confidence in the United States Luckily, at least globally, we are not at that point yet.” The consumer confidence index provides an “international comparative picture” in terms of where “the hotter markets” are, he added. Thus, manufacturers may expect consumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly large-ticket items that require financing. Time series forecasting is its other major attribute, he noted. The data are calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the country's nine census regions.
“We have seen some people cutting discretionary spending on categories like holidays or clothes, out-of-home entertainment like dining out and going to shows and things like that. In the Asia-Pacific region, even as consumers exhibit positivity about spending intentions, their main concern is job security, which is bigger than their concerns about their economy, she said.The index is “a good indication” of where economies might be heading, and it also gives companies a guide “to figure out where to go and how to adjust their strategies in those countries,” said Dahlhoff.“Business leaders and policy-makers are more aware of these risks and begin to anticipate and adjust,” said van Ark. In Western Asia, Pakistan shows a sharp drop in its consumer confidence score from 117 to 111 over the last two quarters. Port development is part of this effort since active ports are expected to result in a more vibrant economy. This records a decrease from the previous number of 98.300 1985=100 for Jun 2020. In August 2011 the confidence and sentiment surveys dropped significantly and stayed low during September and October, while consumer demand surveys showed resilience, a development confirmed later by official statistics.
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