The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Many countries have regions with chronic problems. Fiscal Monitor - April 2020. With free mobility of labor, workers in regions with high unemployment or low average wages would choose to migrate to regions with low unemployment and a higher average wage, and thereby over time eliminate the differential in unemployment and wages.However, wages may not be responsive enough to labor market conditions, leading to excessive swings in unemployment in response to shocks. are available for selected indicators. WEO = Commodity Price Assumptions and Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and LossesGrowth Rate: Emerging Market and Developing EconomiesCurrent Account Balances in Relation to Economic FundamentalsTrade Assumptions in the Baseline, Scenario A, and Scenario BLabor Market Dynamics in Selected Advanced EconomiesLabor Market Dynamics in Selected Advanced EconomiesThe authors of this box are Weicheng Lian and Yuan Zeng.Global Growth Forecast: Assumptions on Policies, Financial Conditions, and Commodity PricesSpecial Feature: Commodity Market Developments and ForecastsSources: IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; and IMF staff calculations.Sources: IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; and IMF staff calculations.Sources: IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Sample period = January 1980 to December 2018.
White shaded areas represent asynchronized movements. Models using principal components have a fixed lag length, but the optimal lag length of the AR model is chosen each time, using Bayesian information criteria or Akaike information criteria.After running the forecast through entire periods, several forecast performance measures are calculated. WEO = Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during January 14–February 11, 2019. Central to this smooth growth profile is a gradual slowdown in China to 5.5 percent by 2024 as internal rebalancing toward a private-consumption and services-based economy continues and regulatory tightening slows the accumulation of debt and associated vulnerabilities. Some optimism about a positive resolution of trade differences between the United States and China is indeed already reflected in market valuations. Plant-Level Evidence from an Export Refund Policy in ChileNot All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil MarketThe Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude OilModeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for CommoditiesInternational Trade, Employment, and Earnings: Evidence from US Rural CountiesInternational Trade and Local Labor Markets: Do Foreign and Domestic Shocks Affect Regions Differently?Forecasting Using Principal Components from a Large Number of Predictors150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?A Factor Model for Co-Movements of Commodity Prices
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